基于机器学习算法的短期风电功率预测方法研究——以RF-PSO-LSTM模型为例

Research on Short-term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Machine Learning Algorithm:Taking RF-PSO-LSTM Model as an Example

  • 摘要: 当前,全球对可再生能源的需求不断增长,风能作为一种可再生清洁能源在电力供应中具有重要作用。然而,风电功率的波动性给电网调度带来挑战,准确预测风电功率成为优化电力系统运行的关键。传统风电功率预测方法(如物理建模和统计建模)存在计算复杂、对数据质量要求高等问题。基于此,提出一种基于随机森林(RF)算法、粒子群优化(PSO)算法和长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络的短期风电功率预测方法。首先,利用风速-功率曲线对数据进行预处理;其次,利用RF算法进行特征选择,剔除不重要的特征变量;再次,利用PSO算法优化LSTM的超参数,提升模型的预测精度;最后,利用我国东南沿海地区某风电场的公开数据集进行模型实验。实验结果表明,该模型在测试集中的均方根误差(RMSE)为1.512 8,平均绝对误差(MAE)为1.163 2,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为8.984 2% ,显著优于单一LSTM模型及其他组合模型,为风电场的优化调度提供了有力支撑。

     

    Abstract: At present, the global demand for renewable energy is growing, and wind energy as a renewable clean energy plays an important role in the power supply.However, the fluctuation of wind power brings challenges to power grid dispatching.Accurate prediction of wind power becomes the key to optimize power system operation.Traditional forecasting methods, such as physical modeling and statistical modeling, have problems of complex calculation and high data quality requirements.Based on this, a wind power prediction method based on random forest (RF), particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is proposed.Firstly, the wind power curve is used to preprocess the data to eliminate the outliers.Secondly, RF algorithm is used for feature selection to remove unimportant feature variables, and PSO algorithm is used to optimize LSTM hyperparameters to improve the prediction accuracy of the model.Finally, the open data set of a wind farm in the southeast coastal area of China is used to conduct model experiments and ablation experiments.The experimental results show that the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the test set are 1.512 8, 1.163 2 and 8.982%, which are significantly better than the single LSTM model and other combined models.It provides an efficient and accurate method for wind power prediction, and provides a strong support for wind farm optimization scheduling.

     

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